After Andy Burnham expressed interest in running for the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer faced a challenging decision. Allowing Burnham to enter the race could potentially fuel speculation about a leadership challenge, given that only MPs are eligible to stand for the leadership position. Moreover, with the possibility of an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester looming alongside challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May, a poor showing for Labour could pose a significant threat to Starmer, providing an opening for contenders like Burnham.
The alternative, which the Prime Minister ultimately pursued, was to prevent Burnham from running, citing the cost to taxpayers of holding a mayoral election and the diversion of party resources from the upcoming May elections. While this move averts an immediate threat, it may have detrimental long-term consequences.
Following the announcement, MPs expressed outrage, accusing Labour’s governing body of orchestrating a manipulation. Burnham could potentially become a symbol for discontented backbenchers who view the decision as overly controlling by Downing Street. The Parliamentary party has already exhibited a rebellious streak by forcing the Government into multiple U-turns, and further provocation will only complicate Starmer’s position.
Some suggest that Starmer may appear weaker by blocking Burnham, advocating for a more assertive approach by allowing him to run. The PM’s camp has taken a firm stance against Wes Streeting, a perceived leadership contender, and now barred Burnham’s return to Westminster. Opinions vary on whether these actions stem from a position of strength or weakness, but the prevailing sentiment leans towards the latter.
Supporters of the PM argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quash internal discord that the public has grown weary of. However, until Starmer can rejuvenate Labour’s ailing poll ratings, doubts about his leadership will persist. Despite criticisms of Burnham prioritizing personal ambitions over the interests of Greater Manchester residents who elected him recently, his popularity remains strong, particularly outside of the Westminster bubble, where he earned the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
While Labour comfortably secured Gorton in the 2024 election, the party faces a challenging task in retaining it, as Reform intensifies efforts to cause an upset and the Greens target votes from the left. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking him on the election outcome, emphasizing that if Labour loses the by-election, there will be significant consequences.